Program

June 19, 2015

Afternoon

Arrival of participants

Registration

Rooftop, Hotel Bonadies

June 20, 2015

09:00 - 10:30

Overview of biofuel policies, how mandates and tax credits (exemptions) work; The biofuel-feedstock price links; Actual versus predicted corn prices and explanation of prediction errors; The minimum corn (ethanol) prices can go in the new biofuel era; How grain and oilseed prices move together.

10:30 - 11:00

Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:30

The economics of a mandate through a simple S/D diagram and intuition; Derivation of “free market” biofuel prices, when the intercept of biofuel supply curve is above or below this price, and how to derive a “mandate” premium above the tax exemption.

12:30 - 14:00

Lunch Break

14:00 - 15:30

Calibration of a corn-ethanol model with two policies in the baseline; Simulation of market effects of alternative policies with alternative baselines.

15:30 - 15:45 

Coffee Break

15:45 - 17:15

A basic welfare model established by leading authorities in the literature; Simulation of welfare effects of alternative energy, environmental and farm policies (and combinations thereof).

Evening

Free

June 21, 2015

09:00 - 10:30

Presentation of a sugarcane-ethanol model for Brazil where the flex cars owners respond to the relative prices of regular fuel and hydrous ethanol; Calibration of and simulations with the model. Implications for corn prices.

10:30 - 11:00

Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:30

“A simple model of soybean oil-diesel and sugarcane-ethanol for a small developing country (e.g., Zambia and Zimbabwe).”

12:30 - 14:30

Lunch Break

14:30 - 16:00

“Calibration of the model for a small developing country and description of implications for a developing country: welfare trade-offs; export or import in feedstock vs crude oil.”

16:00 - 16:15

Coffee Break

16:15 - 17:45

“Implications of the biofuel model and crop-biofuel-energy price linkages for the impacts of developing country policy responses in 2008. Contrary to the literature, policy responses did not cause a “standing up in the stadium” effect nor were they self-defeating. This capstone lecture exemplifies how important it is to understand the economics of biofuel policies.”

Evening

Workshop Dinner

June 22, 2015

09:00 - 10:30

“The controversy of indirect land use change (iLUC) and a model of market leakages in the corn market. How about other market leakages like that in the fuel market?”

10:30 - 11:00

Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:30

“Presentation of a simple leakage model in the fuel market and its calibration.”

12:30 - 14:30

Lunch Break

14:30 - 16:00

“Simulations of the leakage model and empirical estimates of various market leakages and implications for the iLUC controversy.”.

16:00 - 16:15

Coffee Break

16:15 - 17:45

“A look at leakages in the forest market.”