Domenico Depalo | Bank of Italy
Bounds for timely estimates of average household income
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 h. 13:00-14:00
Sala del Consiglio
Abstract: We propose timely estimates of average household income based on survey data, which are typically affected by item non-response. We introduce a set-identification approach that exploits income brackets, exact declarations, and mild monotonicity assumptions to bound average income without the need for imputation or instruments. Using data from the Bank of Italy’s Household Outlook Survey, we show that our bounds contain the official statistics while being available almost one year earlier. The economically plausible assumptions we impose tighten the initial bounds by 25%. Our approach is simple, broadly applicable, and well-suited for contexts where timeliness and robustness to selection bias are crucial

